China's Growing Embrace of Open-Source Intelligence Raises Concerns for US Military

Introduction

China's intelligence agencies have been heavily investing in open-source intelligence (OSINT) to gain valuable insights into the capabilities of the American military in the Pacific and beyond. This concerning development, highlighted in a new report by threat intelligence company Recorded Future, sheds light on China's efforts to collect publicly available data from various sources, including the Pentagon, think tanks, and private firms. By utilizing OSINT, China aims to enhance its strategic planning for potential conflicts with the United States, giving it a potential advantage in the intelligence arena.

The Power of Open-Source Intelligence

As the relationship between the United States and China becomes increasingly adversarial, both nations are ramping up their intelligence collection capabilities. China, with its significant investments in big data management, has recognized the value of mining publicly available information to gather intelligence on the United States and its allies. While autocratic countries like China often keep their military information concealed, the United States, as a democracy, makes a wealth of information about its military capabilities, doctrine, and planning readily accessible. This information, in turn, becomes a valuable resource for China to exploit in order to bolster its military advantages.

Recorded Future's report highlights the work of prominent Chinese open-source intelligence companies that have analyzed insights from the Office of Net Assessment, the Pentagon's in-house think tank. Furthermore, China has sought to gather information published by the Naval War College, which houses the China Maritime Studies Institute. Although this research is conducted in an academic setting, foreign governments view it as valuable intelligence.

China's Expanding Intelligence Capabilities

China's intelligence-gathering capabilities have seen significant advancements over the past few decades, with a particular focus on open-source information in recent years. Recorded Future's analysis reveals that China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) has issued contracts to private Chinese companies for gathering open-source information, including data concerning the U.S. military and its defense of Taiwan. The PLA anticipates U.S. intervention in a Taiwan conflict and actively prepares for such a scenario.

While it's plausible that Chinese spy agencies may already possess some of the information obtained through open-source data, the lack of information sharing between China's intelligence agencies provides an advantage for the PLA. It may be easier for specific intelligence arms within the PLA to develop open-source information about American capabilities than to request classified information from other intelligence agencies within the Chinese government.

Managing the Challenges of Open-Source Collection

The prevalence of open-source collection poses a challenge for democracies like the United States. Recorded Future recognizes the security concerns associated with the information made public by the U.S. and its allies. However, cutting off broad access to such data is not a desirable solution. Instead, awareness of China's open-source intelligence gathering can help private-sector companies, the military, and other government agencies better manage the associated risks. Recorded Future suggests implementing measures to make it harder for automatic web crawlers to scrape information from public databases or websites. Additionally, due diligence should be conducted by private companies when dealing with Chinese firms seeking access to their information.

Conclusion

China's increasing reliance on open-source intelligence for gathering information on the U.S. military poses a significant concern. The United States and its allies must remain vigilant and find ways to mitigate the risks associated with open-source collection. By raising awareness and implementing stronger safeguards, Western countries can maintain their commitment to openness while ensuring the protection of sensitive military information. Balancing transparency with the need for security will be crucial as the dynamics between China and the United States continue to evolve in an increasingly complex global landscape.